ارائه الگوی آینده‌نگاری توسعه منابع انسانی با تأکید بر تعلق سازمانی در سازمان آموزش فنی و حرفه‌ای

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشیار گروه مدیریت بازرگانی، دانشکده علوم اقتصادی و اداری، دانشگاه مازندران، بابلسر، ایران.

2 استادیار، گروه مدیریت و اقتصاد، دانشکده علوم انسانی و اجتماعی، دانشگاه گلستان، گرگان، ایران

3 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد رشته منابع انسانی اسلامی، دانشکده علوم اقتصادی و اداری، دانشگاه مازندران، بابلسر، ایران.

4 عضو هیئت علمی دانشگاه

10.22080/shrm.2026.30138.1821

چکیده

این پژوهش با هدف ارائه الگویی برای آینده‌نگاری توسعه منابع انسانی با رویکرد تعلق سازمانی در سازمان آموزش فنی و حرفه‌ای ایران انجام شد. جامعه آماری شامل کارکنان و خبرگان سازمان آموزش فنی و حرفه‌ای استان گلستان بود که در بخش کیفی داده‌ها از طریق مصاحبه‌های نیمه‌ساختاریافته با 10 نفر از خبرگان گردآوری و با روش تحلیل مضمون مورد تحلیل قرار گرفت. یافته‌های تحلیل مضمون نشان داد که ده پیشران اصلی شامل: نوآوری فناورانه در آموزش، تغییرات جمعیتی و نسل‌های جدید، شرایط اقتصادی و منابع مالی، فرهنگ سازمانی و سبک‌های مدیریتی، تغییرات بازار کار و نیازهای مهارتی، سیاست‌ها و مقررات آموزشی، تغییرات اجتماعی و فرهنگی، نظام انگیزشی و پاداش، تغییرات اقلیمی و محیط زیست، و تحولات بین‌المللی نقش محوری در شکل‌دهی آینده منابع انسانی سازمان دارند. در مرحله کمّی، داده‌ها با روش تحلیل معادلات ساختاری و نرم‌افزار Smart PLS مورد آزمون قرار گرفت و نتایج نشان داد که تعلق سازمانی نقش میانجی معناداری میان عوامل ساختاری (فرهنگ سازمانی، سیاست‌ها و مقررات آموزشی، نظام انگیزشی) و توسعه منابع انسانی ایفا می‌کند. همچنین، اثر مثبت و معنادار فناوری‌های نوین آموزشی و سیاست‌های حمایتی بر تقویت تعلق سازمانی و در نتیجه توسعه منابع انسانی تأیید شد. الگوی پیشنهادی می‌تواند به‌عنوان چارچوبی راهبردی برای سیاست‌گذاران و مدیران سازمان آموزش فنی و حرفه‌ای مورد استفاده قرار گیرد تا ضمن کاهش تهدیدهایی چون مهاجرت نیروی انسانی، افت بهره‌وری و کاهش انگیزش، از فرصت‌های نوآوری فناورانه، همکاری‌های بین‌المللی و تغییرات بازار کار برای ارتقاء سرمایه انسانی و تقویت تعلق سازمانی بهره‌برداری کنند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Foresight Model for Human Resource Development with an Emphasis on Organizational Belonging in the Technical and Vocational Training Organization

نویسندگان [English]

  • Abolhassan Hosseini 1
  • Eesa Niazi 2
  • Maryam Aghaee 3
  • Morteza Movaghar 4
1 Associate Professor, Department of Business Administration, Faculty of Economic and Administrative Sciences, Mazandaran University, Babolsar, Iran.
2 Department of Management, Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, Golestan University, Gorgan, Iran.
3 Master's student in Islamic Human Resources, Faculty of Economic and Administrative Sciences, University of Mazandaran, Babolsar, Iran.
4 faculty member
چکیده [English]

This study aimed to propose a foresight model for human resource development with an emphasis on organizational belonging within Iran’s Technical and Vocational Training Organization. The statistical population consisted of employees and experts of the Golestan Province TVTO, where in the qualitative phase data were collected through semi-structured interviews with 10 experts and analyzed using thematic analysis. The findings revealed ten key drivers shaping the future of human resource development: technological innovation in education, demographic changes and new generations, economic conditions and financial resources, organizational culture and managerial styles, labor market transformations and skill demands, educational policies and regulations, social and cultural changes, motivational and reward systems, climate change and environmental factors, and international developments. In the quantitative phase, data were tested using structural equation modeling (SEM) with Smart PLS software. The results confirmed that organizational belonging serves as a significant mediating variable between structural factors (organizational culture, educational policies and regulations, and motivational systems) and human resource development. Moreover, the positive and significant impact of modern educational technologies and supportive policies on strengthening organizational belonging—and subsequently enhancing human resource development—was verified. Ultimately, the study concludes that the proposed model can serve as a strategic framework for policymakers and managers of the Technical and Vocational Training Organization. By leveraging technological innovation, international collaboration, and labor market transformations, while mitigating threats such as brain drain, productivity decline, and reduced motivation, the model contributes to strengthening organizational belonging and advancing human capital development.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Human resource development
  • Organizational belonging
  • Technical and Vocational Training Organization

مراجع

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مدیریت منابع انسانی پایدار
دوره 8، شماره 14
اردیبهشت 1405
صفحه 267-307

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